Several experts and analysts have suggested that the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025 could push Iran toward pursuing a nuclear weapon, as it appears this would be the only way to prevent Israel from attacking once again.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, stated on X that “Trump just guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next 5 to 10 years.”
He argues that the U.S. strikes may embolden hardline elements in Iran to accelerate efforts to develop a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against future attacks.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, indicated that Iran’s response to the U.S. strikes is likely to include withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
He noted on X that such a withdrawal would signal Iran’s intent to pursue a nuclear weapon, as it would free Tehran from international monitoring obligations. This suggests a heightened likelihood of Iran moving toward weaponization.
Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran expert and editor of Amwaj News, told CNN that the strikes could incentivize Iran to race for a nuclear bomb, particularly if the regime perceives its survival as threatened.
CNN reported that some experts believe the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities may strengthen hardline voices within Iran advocating for a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against future attacks.
On June 23, 2025, Iran’s parliament began reviewing a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), following the U.S. attacks. The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee approved the bill’s outline, citing the IAEA’s alleged political bias and unprofessional conduct.
Iran also threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), potentially limiting IAEA inspections and data access.
